Simple Portfolio [Update]

Few companies, strong(er) conviction.

Editor: @Emanuele20x

Update of my Simple Portfolio (previous article).

As of this moment (late August 22’), my positions are:

This is not investment advice.

The # shares in PLTR 0.00%↑ and AMD 0.00%↑ have not changed.

The percentages changed ($PLTR from 36% to 53%, AMD from 19% to 32%) as the effect of the drastic reduction in AAPL 0.00%↑ and MSFT 0.00%↑ when combined accounted for ~45% of the portfolio.

Apple and Microsoft were meant to be the “cash positions”. I sold them because as they both raised substantially while PLTR 0.00%↑ dropped ~20% after Q2 Earnings (Palantir Q2: Really a Disaster?).

Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi

Surprised how $AAPL rose so much with its biggest risk is taking shape. Taiwan is Apple’s Achilles heel: • chips are manufactured there • deterioration of US - China poses risk of its biggest growth driver (remember Huawei kicked out?) Love you Apple, but 👋

I want to be prepared to add Palantir if it drops below $8, my average price. Meanwhile, I will wait patiently in order to not be over-exposed.

My goal is to minimize my average price rather than maximize performance.

This helps to invest conservatively and this automatically provides me with a greater potential of convexity as shared in my previous article (PLTR Buy Signals - A Dive Inside My Playbook)

I recently started the following positions:

• ABNB 0.00%↑ at $108. I was craving a low price since IPO. At ~25x EV/FCF (~$10bn Net Cash on ~$60 Market Cap) and ~+25% Revenues Growth seems to be a very asymmetrical opportunity at the moment.

• META 0.00%↑ at $169, the price is offensive and I believe most drama is already priced in. I am using Instagram (follow me @arnytrezzi) to have first-hand experience of how well they are executing. I will be in a strong position to judge if this is a real opportunity or simply a value trap.

• VIX ETF: the big lesson I learned in the last years is simple and crucial: when you can insure your portfolio at an inexpensive cost, it is simply better to do so. With the VIX at 20, the insurance is relatively cheap.

Currently, my portfolio is very “barbelled” between two extremes:

• extremely aggressive with very volatile stocks (PLTR, AMD, ABNB)

• extremely conservative with cash and the VIX ETF.

My intention is to be exposed to the strong upside from the relative undervaluation of PLTR, AMD, and ABNB while also being prepared to add more if the opportunity arises.

A month ago the market was screaming for “recession”. Now after a +7% in the S&P500 (driven by Apple), it is showing signs of Greed.

I wait patiently for Fear to return again. I will be happy with the volatile positions providing upside if this does not arrive.

Yours,
Arny

Join me on:
Twitter: @arny_trezzi
Youtube: @Arny Investing
Instagram: @arnylaorca
Discord Channel

View expresses are my own. Do not represent Financial Advice.